The House of Lords has started to debate amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can watch it here.

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Liberal Democrat peer Paul Scriven is opening the debate and said the house is dealing with “a world of fiction and untruths” in the bill.

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You can read the amendments being debated here.

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The House of Lords has begun sitting for the day. There is a live stream here.

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A bit later on it will be debating the government’s Rwanda deportation Bill again, and in advance there are another 34 pages of potential amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can read those here.

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Among the possible changes are clauses which are designed to:

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• ensure the declaration that Rwanda is a safe country is capable of being rebutted in law by credible evidence.

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• seek to give effect to the proposition that parliament cannot judge Rwanda to be a safe country until the Rwanda treaty has been, and continues to be, fully implemented.

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• ensure that Rwanda is not to be conclusively treated as a safe country where the person to be removed is an unaccompanied child, a victim of human trafficking, or a victim of modern slavery.

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• seeks to ensure that the act does not apply retrospectively.

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Among those putting their names to the amendments are Shami Chakrabarti, Brenda Hale, Douglas Hogg and archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby.

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Rishi Sunak has told the media that he absolutely believes “the economy has turned the corner” while convening the first meeting of his 2024 Business Council.

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Speaking in Downing Street to chief executives, PA Media reports the prime minister said during the public opening of the meeting:

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I’m absolutely determined to make the UK the best place in the world to start to grow and invest in businesses.

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Of course we’re still battling with lots of global headwinds, not least the Red Sea at the moment, but at the start of this year I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction.

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Hopefully that’s something that you’re seeing in your businesses, but inflation has been more than halved from 11% down to 4%, mortgage rates are starting to come down.

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Everyone is predicting us to grow this year.

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Sunak speaks with business leaders this morning in Downing Street.”,”caption”:”Rishi Sunak speaks with business leaders this morning in Downing Street.”,”credit”:”Photograph: WPA/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1707906183000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”05.23 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1707906435000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”05.27 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1707906435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”05.27 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”05.27″,”title”:”Sunak: ‘I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner'”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 14 Feb 2024 08.35 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Wed 14 Feb 2024 03.51 EST”},{“id”:”65cc85ec8f084fe73a9940a3″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

A few facts and figures on the Kingswood and Wellingborough byelections, courtesy of PA. They note that if the Conservatives lose one or both, it would mean the government has clocked up more by-election defeats in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.

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The last government to lose this many by-elections during a single parliament was the 1992-97 Conservative administration led by John Major.

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In Kingswood, Chris Skidmore had won the Gloucestershire constituency for the Conservatives at the past four general elections, increasing his share of the vote on each occasion. In January Skidmore resigned over Rishi Sunak’s environmental policies and plans for new oil and gas licences, saying “I can also no longer condone nor continue to support a government that is committed to a course of action that I know is wrong and will cause future harm. To fail to act, rather than merely speak out, is to tolerate a status quo that cannot be sustained.”

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Before 2010, Labour had won the seat at every general election since 1992. To win Labour needs a swing of 11.4%, much smaller than ones achieved in its recent by-election successes against the Tories.

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The Northamptonshire constituency of Wellingborough was won by disgraced former MP Peter Bone for the Conservatives at every general election from 2005 to 2019. In October he was suspended from parliament for six weeks after a watchdog found he had harassed and bullied a staff member and exposed his genitals near their face.

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In an interview with the BBC at the time, the unnamed alleged victim claimed that “the physical, emotional and psychological abuse” he suffered at the hands of Bone had left him a “broken shell of the young man I once was”. Bone has denied the allegations, but was subject to a recall petition which has forced the byelection. His partner is standing for the Conservatives.

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Labour came second in four of the five contests, the exception being 2015 when Ukip was runner-up. Further back, Labour won Wellingborough at the 1997 and 2001 general elections. The swing needed by Labour to win the seat is larger than in Kingswood, at 17.9%.

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Polls open at 7am tomorrow, and will close at 10pm. The results are anticipated to be declared in both constituencies some time after 4am.

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Due to new laws introduced by the Conservative government, voters will need to bring an accepted form of photo ID with them. An interim study by the Electoral Commission warned after last year’s local elections of “concerning” signs that voters with disabilities, people who are unemployed, or those from particular ethnic groups could be disproportionately affected by the policy. About 14,000 people were turned away from polling stations at May’s local elections because they lacked the right ID.

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Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has reacted to the inflation figures, which show prices still rising at 4% annually, by saying that “millions of families” are still worse off under the this government than they were at the last election.

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She said:

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After 14 years of economic failure working people are worse off. Prices are still rising in the shops, with the average household’s costs up £110-a-week compared to before the last election.

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Inflation is still higher than the Bank of England’s target and millions of families are struggling with the cost of living.

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The Conservatives cannot fix the economy because they are the reason it is broken. It’s time for change. Only Labour has a long-term plan to get Britain’s future back by delivering more jobs, more investment and cheaper bills.

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The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said:

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Inflation never falls in a perfect straight line, but the plan is working; we have made huge progress in bringing inflation down from 11%, and the Bank of England forecast that it will fall to around 2% in a matter of months.

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Inflation was at 11% in November 2022, its highest rate since October 1981, just after Rishi Sunak took office as prime minister.

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Richard Partington and Larry Elliott report:

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Britain’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 4% in January despite an increase in energy bills as the cost of living crisis persisted.

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Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed inflation as measured by the consumer prices index defying predictions of an increase in January, after the first monthly fall in food prices for more than two years offset the rise in gas and electricity costs.

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The Bank of England had predicted a small rise in inflation last month after an increase in the Ofgem energy price cap for households across Great Britain, while economists polled by Reuters expected an increase to 4.2%.

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Last month’s better-than-predicted news on the cost of living is likely to be followed by a fall in inflation to the government’s 2% target in the spring.

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Inflation was last at 2% in July 2021 and rose to a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 before starting to decline.

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Read more of Richard Partington and Larry Elliott’s report here: UK inflation remains unchanged at 4% as food prices fall

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The headlines for much of this week might have been about the Rochdale byelection, which takes place on 29 February, but pressingly it is the final day of campaigning in the Wellingborough and the Kingswood byelections today. Here is a quick reminder of what is going on there …

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Wellingborough has a byelection after veteran Conservative MP Peter Bone was subject to a recall petition after a watchdog found he had bullied a staff member and exposed his genitals near their face, which Bone has denied. The Conservatives have selected his partner Helen Harrison to defend the seat, which has not gone down well with locals. Bone won in 2019 with a majority of 18,540.

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Gen Kitchen is the Labour candidate and Keir Starmer was in the constituency with her yesterday. Ana Gunn is standing for the Liberal Democrats and Will Morris standing for the Green party. The co-deputy leader of Reform UK, Ben Habib is their candidate. Labour overturned even bigger Conservative majorities in October 2023 byelections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, leading to some expectation resting on Kitchen that she will win.

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Peter Walker recently visited the constituency for us, which you can read about here: ‘We’re not complacent’ – Labour wary of overconfidence in Wellingborough byelection

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John Harris also went there recently to produce an episode of the Politics Weekly podcast for us, in which he spoke to local groups helping to deal with knife crime and the closure of youth centres, and met Habib. You can listen to that here.

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Kingswood has it byelection after its Conservative MP, Chris Skidmore, a leading Tory voice on green issues, resigned in protest againt his party’s dash for oil and gas. Sam Bromiley is defending Skidmore’s 11,220 majority from 2019. Labour have selected Damien Egan in a seat which has swung between the Tories and Labour over the last century. The Green party came fourth in Kingswood in 2019 but since then has become the largest group on Bristol city council, and has Lorraine Francis standing for it. Andrew Brown is standing for the Liberal Democrats. Reform UK and Ukip also have candidates, with Rupert Lowe, former chairman of Rishi Sunak’s beloved Southampton MP, standing for Richard Tice’s party.

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Steven Morris was there in January as the campaign got under way: ‘Not a practice run’: Labour braves the cold before Kingswood byelection

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Of course, all these visits and reports were before the events of the last few days, where Labour’s candidate selection procedures have come under intense scrutiny.

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Good morning. This time tomorrow polls will be open in the Wellingborough and the Kingswood byelections, which were expected to be a big test of whether Rishi Sunak would retain a grip on his leadership of the Tory party if results went against the prime minister. Instead they are likely to be viewed almost entirely through the prism of Labour in the wake of the suspension of two parliamentary candidates in two days.

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Here are the headlines …

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• A second Labour parliamentary candidate was suspended yesterday over comments made about Israel in a private meeting of Labour activists. It is understood that the party has suspended Graham Jones, its candidate for Hyndburn. Jones is the second Labour parliamentary candidate to be suspended in less than 24 hours over comments made during the meeting, following the decision by Keir Starmer to withdraw support from Azhar Ali, the party’s candidate in Rochdale.

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• Britain’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 4% in January despite an increase in energy bills as the cost of living crisis persisted. The first monthly fall in food prices for more than two years offset the rise in gas and electricity costs. The Bank of England’s target is 2%. We can expect words from Rishi Sunak on this later.

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• The Northern Ireland budget settlement will be discussed in Stormont, with the permanent secretary of the department of finance to appear before the newly reconstituted assembly’s finance committee.

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• Hundreds of frontline NHS staff are treating patients despite being under investigation for their part in an alleged “industrial-scale” qualifications fraud. More than 700 nurses are caught up in a potential scandal, which a former head of the Royal College of Nursing said could put NHS patients at risk.

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• The UK’s hostile environment policies had a worse effect on the mental health of black Caribbean people than the coronavirus lockdown had on the wider population, researchers have found.

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The Commons is in recess. The Lords is sitting from 11am and Rwanda is on the agenda later in the day. The Senedd and the Scottish parliament are not sitting. Stormont has a finance committee meeting.

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It is Martin Belam here with you again today, desperately trying to avoid shoehorning Valentine’s day references into the blog non-stop. I do try to read and dip into the comments when I can, but if you want to get my attention the best way is to email me – martin.belam@theguardian.com – especially if you have spotted an error or typo.

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Key events

If you are interested in some local voices from the Kingswood constituency, which has a byelection tomorrow, then the Bristol Cable yesterday published this short 16 minute podcast where they spoke to people in the area, particularly around the high street, including one resident who said:

It’s a bit of a dump, and it’s got worse. It’s all charity shops. There’s the supermarket but that’s it. It’s rubbish. There needs to be something to bring people in … more interesting than sandwich shops and takeaways. They’re supposed to be rebuilding the entire centre. They keep talking about it and never doing it.

Local business owner Tony Tardio said:

The footfall isn’t as great as it used to be. When I first started, there used to be a market next door … and on a Thursday and Saturday the place would be heaving – the car park would be full. I’m still open, but I’m doing half of what I was doing about 12 years ago. It’s a throwaway society, so for me personally, I don’t think the good old days will come back. I’ve got to be happy with it, just ticking over and making a moderate living.

In the New Statesman, Anoosh Chakelian has also written a piece about the Kingswood byelection. She writes:

With a no-longer-comfortable Conservative majority of 11,220, it’s a tough seat for any politician to crack. “Speaking to the women [in the constituency], they’re doing exactly the same sort of jobs that my mum did – like shop work, dinner ladies, cleaners, that sort of job, but they are a lot poorer,” Damien Egan [Labour’s candidate] observed. “People are now going to foodbanks.”

Also top of voters’ minds are the lack of NHS dental places in the Bristol area, rising mortgage payments, and anti-social behaviour. Shoplifting is on the up, and there has been a spree of stabbings in Bristol.

Chakelian had less luck getting quotes from the Conservative candidate attempting to defend Chris Skidmore’s seat, noting that she “waited outside the constituency HQ, which bore nothing but frosted glass and a small printed A4 ‘closed’ sign. The lights were on but no one answered, and over about an hour there was no sign of the usual coming-and-going of stoic activists in anoraks clutching clipboards.”

She writes that “Their candidate, a local called Sam Bromiley, appears to be running a one-issue campaign against South Gloucestershire Council’s plans to build 8,000-odd houses on greenfield land.”

Earlier this week the Conservative government announced a series of proposed changes to the planning system to encourage developers to build more homes.

I did promise at the outset of today to avoid shoehorning in Valentine’s day references, left, right and centre-left, but I couldn’t make the promise apply to anybody else.

The Conservatives have launched a series of social media posts which they have dubbed the “Starmer Sutra”, attempting to illustrate various positions that the Labour leader has taken.

The Starmer Sutra is the perfect Valentine’s Day gift for the politically promiscuous.

Written by the father of u-turns, this is the definitive how-to guide on flip-flopping into different positions on anything.

*Only available in paperback and spineless editions* pic.twitter.com/Lb3e1fr07k

— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 14, 2024

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The Starmer Sutra is the perfect Valentine’s Day gift for the politically promiscuous.

Written by the father of u-turns, this is the definitive how-to guide on flip-flopping into different positions on anything.

*Only available in paperback and spineless editions* pic.twitter.com/Lb3e1fr07k

— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 14, 2024

Labour, meanwhile, are sending out 17,000 Valentine’s cards in the Kingswood constituency campaigning for Damien Egan.

The government is “undermining” the UK’s modern slavery protections with the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill, a Conservative former minister has claimed.

John Gummer, a Tory former environment secretary who sits in the House of Lords as Lord Deben, was speaking in favour of a series of amendments to the Bill aimed at ensuring that Rwanda is not conclusively considered a safe country for unaccompanied children, and victims of modern slavery and human trafficking.

Lord Deben told peers:

I must say I am a bit tired of having to remind this government of what it means to be a Conservative. I have had to do that earlier on, on the single market, and I am now doing it on this.

We have a reputation in the world because of our Modern Slavery Act. It was a brave and important thing to do. It was welcomed across the whole House.

I am proud that it was a Conservative government that did this, I am not proud that there is a Conservative government undermining that when we know that more than three quarters of those who appeal in these circumstances are found to be right in their appeal.

I think those of us who sit in our comfortable places might just think on Ash Wednesday that this is a moment to reach out to those who are uncomfortable and are not able to speak up for themselves, and there are few people who are in a worse position than these.

So on what possible moral basis do you threaten to send them to a country which has not signed up to the international agreement on modern slavery, to a country which has twice as many modern slaves as we do and we admit that we have many whom we have not traced, to a country which has a history of ignoring this problem? How on earth can we defend that on a moral basis, leave alone a practical basis?

What the blazes is the use of claiming that there is a deterrent effect when the person you are talking about is not in a position to be deterred because they have been taken up by someone who has made those decisions for them?

Victims of modern slavery and human trafficking should be protected from removal to Rwanda, a former top judge has told the government.

Baroness Butler-Sloss, the first female Lord Justice of Appeal, argued for this to be added to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill as peers continued their line-by-line scrutiny on Wednesday.

The independent crossbench peer told the House of Lords:

The Modern Slavery Act is an outstanding piece of legislation by, for goodness sake, a Conservative government. We were all extremely proud of it, it was copied in Australia and in other countries.

The government asserts, without evidence, that the system of assessing whether a person is a genuine victim is being abused. But the figures from the NRM (National Referral Mechanism) show that the majority of those going through the system are found to be genuine.

Noting that modern slavery protections no longer apply to “those trafficked into this country for exploitation here”, she argued this will have “a devastating effect on victims and also on the United Kingdom’s ability to deal with the perpetrators of this heinous crime”.

Butler-Sloss, who is also the vice chairwoman of the Human Trafficking Foundation, urged the government to accept her amendment to show “some support to those who are or are about to be victims of a hugely profitable and odious trade in men, women and children”.

Steven Morris

The Guardian’s Steven Morris has interviewed Wales’ economy minister, Vaughan Gething, who is battling to become the leader of Welsh Labour, and thus the first minister of Wales, as well as the country’s first black leader next month.

Gething said of his candidacy:

You can’t deny the historic nature of it. I think I should win because I’m the best candidate. I’ve got loads of experience. I’ve got values rooted in our movement. I was a trade union shop steward, Wales TUC president, had 10 years as an employment lawyer and I have a vision for the future. But if I win, the fact that I’ll be the first black leader of any European nation is a matter of historic significance.

Elizabeth Butler-Sloss is telling the House of Lords that the UK was rightly proud of legislation it introduced to combat modern slavery, which was copied by other nations, but that Rwanda does not have similar provisions.

“The government asserts without evidence” she says, that the modern slavery legislation is being abused.

Home secretary James Cleverly has commented on the safety of MPs, saying he is working with the speaker of the house on the issue. He posted to social media:

The intimidation of MPs is wrong and undemocratic. The speaker and I work with parliamentary security and the police to keep measures for MPs under constant review. MPs shouldn’t have to choose between their family’s safety and representing their community.

The comments come in the wake of a pro-Palestinian demonstration that was held outside the house of Conservative MP and former Middle East minister Tobias Ellwood’s house.

Alicia Kearns, chairperson of the foreign affairs select committee, commented:

It is wholly unacceptable for a public servant’s private home to be targeted. This has a chilling effect on political discourse, and serves only to push politicians to the point where they question whether it is all worth it, especially for their families.

Ellwood and his two sons were reported to be at the house at the time of the protest.

House of Lords begins second day of debate on Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill

The House of Lords has started to debate amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can watch it here.

Liberal Democrat peer Paul Scriven is opening the debate and said the house is dealing with “a world of fiction and untruths” in the bill.

You can read the amendments being debated here.

Train drivers at five rail operators have voted to continue taking strike action for another six months.

Aslef announced that its members on Chiltern, c2c, East Midlands, Northern and TransPennine railways had overwhelmingly backed carrying on with action. Unions involved in disputes are forced to reballot their members every six months on continuing with industrial action.

PA Media reports Mick Whelan, general secretary of Aslef said:

Our members have voted, time and again, for strikes. That’s why Mark Harper, the transport secretary, is being disingenuous when he says that offer should have been put to members.

Drivers obviously wouldn’t vote for industrial action, again and again and again, if they thought that was a good offer. They don’t. That offer was dead in the water in April last year – and I think Mr Harper knows that.

Our North of England editor Helen Pidd is on the Today in Focus podcast today, which asks what on earth is going on in the Rochdale byelection?

She has been covering the election, and speaking to people in Rochdale about the chaotic political process there. She tells Nosheen Iqbal how voters are feeling and what really matters to them. You can listen to it here …

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) regulator has launched an investigation into the performance of National Highways.

In a media statement, the regulator said:

Since it was created, National Highways has generally achieved its aims and delivered well for road users. ORR’s annual assessment of National Highways’ performance, published in July 2023, identified a number of potential risks, such as delivery of its capital portfolio and asset management strategy. Since then, ORR has observed that those risks have materialised, and performance has dipped across several areas.

National Highways operates and maintains motorways and major A-roads in England.

Feras Alshaker, director of planning and performance at ORR, is quoted as saying “National Highways has generally delivered well for road users, but in recent months we have become concerned that its performance has dipped in a number of areas and issues are recurring.”

The regulator says it is planning for the investigation to take approximately eight to 12 weeks between February and April 2024.

House of Lords to debate Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill amendments

The House of Lords has begun sitting for the day. There is a live stream here.

A bit later on it will be debating the government’s Rwanda deportation Bill again, and in advance there are another 34 pages of potential amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can read those here.

Among the possible changes are clauses which are designed to:

• ensure the declaration that Rwanda is a safe country is capable of being rebutted in law by credible evidence.

• seek to give effect to the proposition that parliament cannot judge Rwanda to be a safe country until the Rwanda treaty has been, and continues to be, fully implemented.

• ensure that Rwanda is not to be conclusively treated as a safe country where the person to be removed is an unaccompanied child, a victim of human trafficking, or a victim of modern slavery.

• seeks to ensure that the act does not apply retrospectively.

Among those putting their names to the amendments are Shami Chakrabarti, Brenda Hale, Douglas Hogg and archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby.

This is not the business live blog – that is with my colleague Jasper Jolly over here – but there is a bit more economic data out from the ONS today which is likely to have ramification for politics and the cost of living crisis.

The average UK house price fell by around £4,000 in the 12 months to December 2023, according to official figures, although the change was unevenly distributed among the nations.

Property values fell annually by 2.1% in England and by 2.5% in Wales, but house prices increased annually by 3.3% in Scotland and by 1.4% in Northern Ireland. London had the biggest fall in house prices. I think I can predict the Daily Express front page tomorrow.

The private rental market saw large cost increases for tenants. The ONS said private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 6.2% in the 12 months to January 2024.

Annual private rental prices increased by 6.1% in England, 7.0% in Wales and 6.8% in Scotland in the 12 months to January 2024. The ONS said Northern Ireland’s data was only available up to November 2023, so it has not been broken out.

The 6.8% increase in Scotland is the highest annual rate since the Scotland data started in January 2012. Rents in London increased by 6.9% annually – representing the joint-highest annual percentage change since London records started in January 2006.

The headline inflation figures today do mean that the prime minister can claim to have achieved one of his five key pledges, albeit the one where the target for inflation belongs to the independent Bank of England rather than the government per se.

Here is a quick ready reckoner on where Rishi Sunak stands with the five key pledges he made in January, which are listed here and highlighted in bold in this list.

• “We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security”. Sunak needed inflation to fall to below 5.4%, and it has.

• “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country”. The final GDP figures for the year will be published on Thursday, it looks unlikely that the economy will have grown by much more than 0.5%, and may have shrunk.

• “We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services”. The national debt rose over the course of 2023. It stands at 97.7% higher than it was a year earlier when it stood at 95.8%.

• “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly”. Sunak’s government is only responsible for health in England, as it is a devolved matter. The number of people waiting for NHS treatment reached an estimated 7.61 million in November, up from 7.21 million in January 2023.

• “We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”. 29,437 people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2023 down from 45,755 in 2022. Sunak has failed to pass his Rwanda deportation bill, with the supreme court ruling against it in November.

Sunak: ‘I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner’

Rishi Sunak has told the media that he absolutely believes “the economy has turned the corner” while convening the first meeting of his 2024 Business Council.

Speaking in Downing Street to chief executives, PA Media reports the prime minister said during the public opening of the meeting:

I’m absolutely determined to make the UK the best place in the world to start to grow and invest in businesses.

Of course we’re still battling with lots of global headwinds, not least the Red Sea at the moment, but at the start of this year I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction.

Hopefully that’s something that you’re seeing in your businesses, but inflation has been more than halved from 11% down to 4%, mortgage rates are starting to come down.

Everyone is predicting us to grow this year.